The Cedi looked set to reverse sections of its recent rally against its three major trading partner currencies as the local unit opened the week weaker against the Dollar, the Pound, and the Euro, the first of such simultaneous week-on-week losses in nearly ten weeks. This phenomenon points to the emergence of forex demand pressures on the Cedi amid rising geopolitical tensions, with investors seemingly fleeing riskier assets and currencies to safe havens.
The Cedi’s performance at the start of the week comes at a time when Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default rating to ‘B-’ from ‘Restrictive Default’ (RD) with a stable outlook. According to the rating agency, the key drivers of the upgrade came on the back of the normalization of relations with commercial creditors, near completion of the sovereign’s debt restructuring programme, progress made on fiscal slippage & budget deficits, manageable debt service obligations, and resilient growth, among others. Ghana’s Local Currency Short and Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings were also upgraded. This development is expected to bolster investor confidence in the Ghanaian economy to help sustain the Cedi’s gains.
On the Bank of Ghana (BoG) inter-bank trading platform, the Cedi plummeted by 0.49%, 0.73%, and 1.93% to trade at GHS 10.3052, GHS 14.0047, and GHS 11.9351 from last week’s opening trade quotes of GHS 10.2551, GHS 13.9029, and GHS 11.7087 against the Dollar, the Pound, and the Euro, respectively. The Dollar crawled back some of its earlier losses against some of its trading pairs after Israel launched a large-scale airstrike on Iran, hitting several military and nuclear targets. These attacks reignited concerns over risks to the Middle East oil flows and global growth, which exacerbated the already fragile sentiment driven by global trade uncertainties.
On the Open Forex Market (oanda.com), the Cedi similarly suffered a hit, depreciating by 0.43%, 0.60%, and 1.73%, having been exchanged for GHS 10.3141, GHS 14.0053, and GHS 11.9300 at the start of the week from previous week’s opening trade quotes of GHS 10.2695, GHS 13.9216, and GHS 11.7269 against the Dollar, the Pound, and the Euro, respectively. The Pound strengthened against a basket of peers ahead of this week’s policy-setting, which the market is already expecting the Bank of England to maintain rates.
The Cedi was quoted at GHC 14.7074 on the first trading day of the year against the Dollar and is currently being sold at GHS 10.3052, indicating a Year-to-Date (YTD) gain of 29.93% on the BoG inter-bank trading platform. It is also presently being quoted at GHS 10.3141 on the Open Forex Market (oanda.com) after opening the year at GHS 14.7134, indicating a YTD gain of 29.90%.